USA vs Senegal prediction
USA vs Senegal 
R32 · Round of 32 · 2026-07-01 · San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
1–0predicted score
46%USA to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Too close to call: USA v Senegal
Projected Round of 32 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes USA 46% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.4–1).
The edge comes from usa +55 elo and expected goals 1.4 – 1.0.
Form check: USA have been over-performing expectations (6 pts from 2 — about 1.7 above the 4.3 our model expected.); Senegal have been matching expectations (0 pts from 1, right in line with the 0.3 expected.).
USA
▲ over-performing
6 pts from 2 — about 1.7 above the 4.3 our model expected.
Senegal
· as expected
0 pts from 1, right in line with the 0.3 expected.
Confidence factors
📈USA +55 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.4 – 1.0
🔥Form WWW vs LLW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.4 xG)