Mexico vs Sweden prediction
Mexico vs Sweden 
R32 · Round of 32 · 2026-06-30 · Mexico City
1–0predicted score
52%Mexico to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Too close to call: Mexico v Sweden
Projected Round of 32 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Mexico 52% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.5–0.9).
The edge comes from mexico +85 elo and expected goals 1.5 – 0.9.
Form check: Mexico have been over-performing expectations (6 pts from 2 — about 1.8 above the 4.2 our model expected.); Sweden have been matching expectations (3 pts from 2, right in line with the 2.2 expected.).
Mexico
▲ over-performing
6 pts from 2 — about 1.8 above the 4.2 our model expected.
Sweden
· as expected
3 pts from 2, right in line with the 2.2 expected.
Confidence factors
📈Mexico +85 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.5 – 0.9
🔥Form WWW vs WLL
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)