Netherlands vs Morocco prediction
Netherlands vs Morocco 
R32 · Round of 32 · 2026-06-29 · Monterrey (Guadalupe)
1–0predicted score
56%Netherlands to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Netherlands edge it in our model
Projected Round of 32 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Netherlands 56% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.7–0.9).
The edge comes from netherlands +107 elo and expected goals 1.7 – 0.9.
Form check: Netherlands have been matching expectations (4 pts from 2, right in line with the 4.4 expected.); Morocco have been over-performing expectations (4 pts from 2 — about 1.4 above the 2.6 our model expected.).
Netherlands
· as expected
4 pts from 2, right in line with the 4.4 expected.
Morocco
▲ over-performing
4 pts from 2 — about 1.4 above the 2.6 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈Netherlands +107 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.7 – 0.9
🔥Form DWW vs DWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.5 xG)