Brazil vs Japan prediction
Brazil vs Japan 
R32 · Round of 32 · 2026-06-29 · Houston
1–0predicted score
63%Brazil to advance
📐 model analysisprojected
Brazil edge it in our model
Projected Round of 32 tie — if the bracket holds and these two meet, our model makes Brazil 63% to advance, projecting a 1–0 scoreline (expected goals 1.9–0.8).
The edge comes from brazil +145 elo and expected goals 1.9 – 0.8.
Form check: Brazil have been under-performing expectations (just 4 pts from 2, roughly 1 below the 5 expected.); Japan have been over-performing expectations (4 pts from 2 — about 1.1 above the 2.9 our model expected.).
Brazil
▼ under-performing
just 4 pts from 2, roughly 1 below the 5 expected.
Japan
▲ over-performing
4 pts from 2 — about 1.1 above the 2.9 our model expected.
Confidence factors
📈Brazil +145 Elo
⚽Expected goals 1.9 – 0.8
🔥Form DWW vs DWW
⏱️Balanced tempo (2.6 xG)